“So the thesis of this book stands or falls with the correctness of the decline rate that Brown gives us. Therefore I have calculated with several different parameters as regards the decline rate, and all point in the same direction. The difference between them is a few years at most. Therefore I assume that my thesis is solid, which is that the end of global net oil exports in 2030-2032 (Brown’s scenario) is a best-case scenario.
Collapse can, I think, begin in earnest already in 2026, only because of too little diesel exports. Observe that oil exports vanish successively, more and more, not all at once.” ?
I would say you are overthinking it. Many people are already living in the way we in the West will have to learn to live in the future. It will be without cars and computers and technology, and with minimal healthcare, and social care will mean having family and friends, and food will mean growing it, or having a valuable skill that people are willing to pay you for so you can afford to buy food.
Our extraordinary (in the truest sense) fossil fuelled culture has been a short 250 year blip in history, and after it is over, far fewer humans may continue to exist as they and their ancestors have done for a million years. No rocket science, no techno fixes, no woo-woo cultural transformations, just land, growing food, singing a song, and surviving long enough to raise kids to do the same, all over again.
And maybe some myths and legends to try to explain the ruins that will surround us to our grandchildren.
"Why [Neanderthal extinction] happened is a contentious topic amongst experts. It is possible that our ancestors may have directly or indirectly contributed to this extinction, but the extent of our role remains to be determined."
You have probably seen 'this'?
“So the thesis of this book stands or falls with the correctness of the decline rate that Brown gives us. Therefore I have calculated with several different parameters as regards the decline rate, and all point in the same direction. The difference between them is a few years at most. Therefore I assume that my thesis is solid, which is that the end of global net oil exports in 2030-2032 (Brown’s scenario) is a best-case scenario.
Collapse can, I think, begin in earnest already in 2026, only because of too little diesel exports. Observe that oil exports vanish successively, more and more, not all at once.” ?
https://un-denial.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/lars-larsen-the-end-of-global-net-oil-exports-13th-edition-2024.pdf
Fantastic summary of the situation, thank you.
I would say you are overthinking it. Many people are already living in the way we in the West will have to learn to live in the future. It will be without cars and computers and technology, and with minimal healthcare, and social care will mean having family and friends, and food will mean growing it, or having a valuable skill that people are willing to pay you for so you can afford to buy food.
Our extraordinary (in the truest sense) fossil fuelled culture has been a short 250 year blip in history, and after it is over, far fewer humans may continue to exist as they and their ancestors have done for a million years. No rocket science, no techno fixes, no woo-woo cultural transformations, just land, growing food, singing a song, and surviving long enough to raise kids to do the same, all over again.
And maybe some myths and legends to try to explain the ruins that will surround us to our grandchildren.
"Why [Neanderthal extinction] happened is a contentious topic amongst experts. It is possible that our ancestors may have directly or indirectly contributed to this extinction, but the extent of our role remains to be determined."
https://www.sciencealert.com/did-humans-wipe-out-neanderthals-it-s-complicated
"I really like Eliza's article. It's very realistic; except for thinking that there is a way out."
There is. We won't bother because most are oblivious. Those that aren't are doing other things......🫵
Evolution is also the evolution of consciousness. This will be the key. After the collapse.